David Russell Moore

New York, NY


Projects & Notes, Semi-Abandoned WP Install

Created Jan. 2011, content is dated. Reachable at @ppolitics or @sanschain on micropublishing.



2016 Election Science


I gather from Twttr it’s #GOPdebate tonight. Typing in my individual role, I agree it’s important to condemn Republican policies and it’s worthwhile to publish personal messages here on this commercial social media service in the event that 1% of them algorithmically reach conservative-voting FB friends in battleground states, and to reinforce liberal norms.

In short, the Dem Prez nominee will get to 272 Electoral College votes of a needed 270 with current strongholds plus CO, IA, NH, NM, NV, PA, WI, even without any of FL, NC, OH, or VA. (But yeah, CO, NH & PA are not gimmes, even given D advantage in too-early “polls”, better to put those aside.) Of those seven states, PA has most EC votes w/ 20, but it’s gone Dem past five generals; WI, my beloved home state, has 10, same outcome, still worth being wary though; NV with six EC has gone R for 3/5 past generals; IA, six, 2/5 past; but let’s focus on CO, which with 9 EC votes has gone R 3/5 past generals.

(Not addressing here importance of running the table on 5/5 battleground Senate races, with holding NV for Reid’s retirement to get to 51 votes at least in that chamber: FL, IL, NH, PA, WI. 3/5 of those overlap with Prez battlegrounds obvs.)

So first, what does the CO Dem Party ask & need by way of resources? Like most state parties, besides funding, they’re a bit too proud to be direct, so they have a volunteer form (http://goo.gl/AL8C2K), which is fine. In-state, respected organizers there could tell the public more and media can amplify and funders should optimize with input from experienced advisors.

On empirical evidence on what increases voter turnout, either effectively or at all, the independent group that conducted research & trainings folded (interesting story), and has become Wellstone Action w/ a new resources page (http://goo.gl/x87daz) – so that’s how to begin to invest resources optimally, if one was able to rationally communicate with high net-worth individuals. More research avail. on how to increase voter turnout through field & controllable experiments, but I’ll gather that another night, hopefully when I can publish more publicly.